The oil war as a marketing factor
The most significant event of 2010 in the post-Soviet space was the next oil war between Russia and Belarus. Due to the fact that we are talking about about 5 billion dollars that were at stake, the war turned out to be protracted, no one wanted to give in, because it was a very large sum, even on a global scale.
The oil war and its impact on the markets
The oil war significantly affects the marketing activities of many companies in different countries. For this reason, it is advisable to determine what the war can affect and what the outcome may be. This will allow you to choose the most effective marketing strategy for those companies whose markets may be affected by the oil war.
Let’s figure out what the oil war can turn out for companies operating in the Russian market. There are 2 possible scenarios of events: the first will be realized in case of victory of the Russian side, and the second will be realized in case of defeats of the Russian war. It should be noted that a draw in this war is the most unfortunate and undesirable outcome.
When Russia wins, it favorably affects its economy, because the money in the form of customs duties on oil goes to the budget. It can be assumed that money will go from the budget either to enterprises, or pensioners, or state employees, and this will lead to the fact that the economy will receive additional stimulation in the amount of 5 billion US dollars.
The Russian economy receives an additional 5 billion dollars
The Russian economy receives an additional $ 5 billion, which will most likely be spent on the Russian market. This is a definite plus for the players of the Russian market. If you take into account the hierarchy of needs for Maslow, then we can assume that the lion’s share of 5 billion US dollars will be spent on the purchase of products, household appliances and travel.
This choice of consumers is due to the fact that for something more serious, for example, for cars or housing, this amount, if distributed among the population, will be clearly insufficient. Thus, from the victory in the oil war of the Russian side, dividends will be received, first of all, by companies operating in the food, household appliances and travel markets.
These companies should have a clear marketing strategy in case the Russian side wins. Otherwise, they may miss the chance, and it is worthwhile to make some efforts to realize this particular scenario, because the loss of the Russian side in the oil war leads to losses for the Russian economy.
This is not a very pleasant scenario for Russian companies.
If the Russian side loses, then market players who, if they had won, would have received some dividends from it, simply will not receive them. There will be no losses from losing the Russian side, but there will also be no additional profits. This is not a very pleasant scenario for Russian companies, but you should prepare for it by preparing an appropriate marketing strategy.
Companies operating in the Belarusian market should also prepare for two possible scenarios. The first option is that the Belarusian side wins the oil war and gets 5 billion US dollars. Moreover, they will fall into the budget and most likely will go to increase salaries, pensions, and to support enterprises.
Winning the Belarusian side will lead to an improvement in market conditions. As in the case of Russia, money is primarily spent on food, household appliances, clothing and travel. Most likely, they will not go to other goods or services, because they will be distributed, most likely, they will be fair and will not give much in one hand.
Losing the war on the Belarusian side leads to difficult times
The winners in the oil war of the Belarusian side benefit the players who work in the Belarusian market of food, household appliances, clothing and travel. They receive additional bonuses. To get additional bonuses, players in these markets are simply required to have a clear marketing strategy, because otherwise money can go to other markets.
Losing the war on the Belarusian side leads to difficult times. First of all, the blow again falls on companies involved in food, household appliances, clothing and travel. The domestic Belarusian market is small in order to have sufficient sales volumes, and the presence of Belarusian companies on the foreign market is very small.
It is obvious that the oil war, if it is pumping unsuccessfully for the Belarusian side, will lead to increased competition in the Belarusian market and, as a consequence, the restriction of imports.
